Hurricane Greg heads to cool waters, expected to weaken - NHC
Posted by has in hurricane greg, world on Thursday, August 18, 2011
Hurricane Greg is heading to cool waters and is expected to weaken during the next 48 hours, according to the 8:00 p.m. PDT, August 18, 2011 bulletin of the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Hurricane Greg Track Forecast | Source: NHC
According to the NHC, the weather disturbance is packing maximum winds of 80 mph and is moving in a West Nortwest direction at the rate of 14 mph, with an estimated central pressure of 982 MB, 29 inches.
There were no watches or warnings raised.
Here's a discussion from the NHC:
HURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011
800 PM PDT THU AUG 18 2011
IT APPEARS THAT GREG HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN. THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE OF GREG HAS DISAPPEARED.
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THINNED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THAT TIME A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING AND GREG IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3-4 DAYS.
GREG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. GREG SHOULD TURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW DOWN OF THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. AS GREG WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT IS LIKELY TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.